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Current Workforce Trends: Worker Shortages and Skills-Based HiringJuly 24, 2024 | |A Brief History of US Workforce Trends in the 21st Century In 1987, the Hudson Institute released Workforce 2000, a book which made predictions pertaining to US labor and workforce trends in the 21st century 1. Some of these predictions included the forecast that the US workforce would slowly increase and include more female and older workers. Comparing these predictions to the workforce today, many have been accurate. While men are still employed at higher percentages than women, this gap continues to decrease every year, especially as the education gap closes 2. Today’s workforce continues to increase in age; the number of working adults (men and women) 60 years of age or older doubled in the first two decades of the 21st century 3. Education and Skills: Trends in the Workforce At the beginning of the 21st century, degree requirements rose significantly across jobs and industries, even for jobs that did not previously have educational specifications (this phenomenon is known as ‘degree inflation’) 4. After the 2008 Recession, many organizational leaders and government agencies called for reforms on increasing degree stipulations in job postings, with the hopes of increasing fairness and diversity in hiring. Furthermore, requiring a degree when one is not necessary to perform the job well is the perfect recipe for litigation against organizational hiring practices. To assess whether a reduction in degree requirements occurred because of this reform, a study conducted by Harvard Business Review analyzed job requirements for over fifty million job postings between 2017 and 2020. Findings showed that degree requirements decreased by 46% in middle-skill positions, and by 31% in high-skill positions between 2017 and 2019 4. Skills-Based Hiring Although degree requirements may be decreasing for certain types of positions, skill-based hiring (SBH) is on the rise 5. SBH places more emphasis on candidates’ skills and experience over degrees they may possess 4. The underlying premise of SBH posits that not everyone may have had the opportunity, the funding, or the desire to pursue post-secondary education. Instead of furthering their formal education, this group gained valuable skills by entering the workforce earlier than some of their peers. One example of SBH in Colorado in 2019 was the elimination of four-year degrees from 20% of the job postings in Boulder County. Between 2019 and 2021, Boulder County reported a 10% increase in job applications for open positions, and significant increases in the diversity of their applicant pool 6. Projected Workforce Shortages The topic of worker shortages across various industries has been an area of interest for quite some time. A salient explanation for the anticipated shortage of workers was the significant growth in jobs that require more complex skillsets, particularly in jobs that will require the understanding and application of new technologies. Findings from the Department of Labor (DOT) reported that most jobs that are anticipated to decline in growth require lower levels of education/skills, while the jobs that are projected to see the most growth will require more complex skillsets 7. Trends in desired occupations have shifted as well. A poll in 2021 showed that among both boys and girls, social media influencer was in the top five most popular dream jobs. This is a relatively new career that continues to grow in popularity. Additionally, healthcare, education, and hospitality industries have experienced high turnover rates in the last decade, coupled with steep increases in job openings. This discrepancy is estimated to leave a large gap in job openings that need to be filled in order to meet growing demand. Summary The workforce of the 21st century has included an increase in higher education, minorities, and older adults compared to the 20th century. The first and second decades of this century have been differentiated by the former placing more of an emphasis on secondary education, and the latter focusing more on skills in occupational settings. This century has experienced a global pandemic, which has continued to impact education and occupational norms years afterwards. Certain industries, such as healthcare, education, and hospitality, have experienced heightened amounts of turnover in recent years. These industries are also experiencing significant increases in job growth, which is creating a wider deficit in positions to fill. Lastly, jobs involving technology and social media are growing in popularity and may shape future generations’ career choices. Although we are two decades into the 21st century, workforce trends that will define the majority of this century remain to be seen. References:
Categorized in: Industry News |
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